I've been too busy writing out here at the coast to update this blog for the last two weeks. But since Obama is going to announce his plans for the war in Afghanistan tonight, and I've been thinking about war so much, I thought that I'd put together my opinions on the issue.
Obama is reportedly intending to increase troop levels by 30,000, but also plans to end the war in Afghanistan within three years. Best of luck to him. It's not an entirely popular move, and with the many comparisons to Vietnam, there are fears that Obama may be simply embroiling the United States in a war it cannot win and cannot afford.
While the cost of the war is a significant issue in its own right. There is some hope on that front. Congressional Democrats David Obey and Carl Levin are forwarding a "war tax" proposal that would effectively implement a one percent tax that would fund the war in Afghanistan (a war that may cost upwards of $100 billion a year). The tax, entitled the Share the Sacrifice Act, would exempt service members who have served in Iraq or Afghanistan, as well as families that have lost loved ones. While Murdoch's media machine is already revving up to fight it, there is hope that there are enough military conservatives to overcome the greed of the business elites.
As for the troop increases themselves, my hope is that Obama will be able to use them to give himself the time to do three things:
1) Stand up non-uniformed Afghani militia forces to protect their homes with AKs and grenades against outside influences in the name of stability. Call it the Minuteman policy. Give them political training, small-arms defensive guerrilla training, and send them home. It was virtually the only thing that was particularly effective (especially cost effective) in Vietnam, and it's the right thing to do here.
2) Allow Pakistan time to harden up its defenses in the border region, in anticipation of militancy in the future. Sorry Pakistan, better start digging trenches, the next decade is going to suck for you.
3) Give special forces and UAVs the maneuvering room to continue targeting militants in the hills, trading time for precision, and giving especial thought to avoid collateral damage in order to prevent a widening of the conflict. This is a boring village country. Kill one farmer, and the only thing his son has to do for the next 15 years is bitch to his friends about how Americans murdered his dad. Don't let it happen.
This is not a good war to fight. We saw what happened to the Soviets when they tried it. It is a theater that negates every advantage we have except UAVs. Maybe we could win, but win against what? 300 militants hiding in the hills? What's the point if in the process we do far more damage to ourselves by overextending than they ever could? I say pull back and let the chips sort themselves out a little bit. Karzai is not worth supporting at the cost of our own principles and the myth of stability. He doesn't control anything outside the capitol, and even that is tenuous, and he's basically just another warlord.
Right now the only thing providing real stability is Coalition forces, and that doesn't seem to be changing. If things are going to fall apart as soon as we leave, regardless of what we do, then we better just pull the band-aid. We can't stay there forever. It's time to call it a win and go home. We can always come back if we need to.
